The $1.29M Masonry Business: Which Earnings Year Are You Buying?

My 30-second take

• Why it caught my attention: an established crew, a six-month handover and a 2.96× ask against estimated earnings.
• What could kill it: treating a strong historical year or next year's order book as cash already earned.
• Evidence I need next: a project-level bridge between earnings years and signed, costed contracts that survive the seller's exit.

The listing snapshot

Seller financing is advertised without terms. Request the actual SDE reconciliation, inventory basis and lease assignment before calling the package transferable.

The biggest risk: buying the wrong earnings year

The estimate is 56.4% below the historical figure. That is a comparison between two disclosed numbers, not a verified decline in completed accounts. Request a bridge by project: volume, pricing, labour, subcontracting, write-offs and owner add-backs. Do not infer a matching revenue decline.

Signed work is not banked profit. Check cancellation rights, billing dates, scope changes and crew availability. The model uses the lower estimate, subject to verification, with no assumed recovery.

One illustrative purchase structure

Assume 20% buyer equity ($258,000), a 65% senior loan ($838,500) at 8% over seven years, and 15% seller financing ($193,500) at 6% over five years. Both loans amortize monthly. These are planning terms, not lender or seller offers. The annual payments are $156,828 and $44,891 respectively.

Allow $35,000 a year for equipment and systems. The replacement case also deducts $140,000 for the seller's estimating, supervision and relationship duties. This needs quotes: it is not a wage benchmark or another deduction of existing payroll.

What stays with the buyer? About $199,281 a year if you do the seller's work, or $59,281 if you pay for replacement capacity. Both are before tax, under these assumptions.

The $258,000 equity excludes fees, taxes and opening cash. Confirm inventory inclusion and fund receivables, holdbacks, payroll and unfinished jobs. Working capital is undisclosed. Annual profit does not cover every cash gap.

Ten questions that decide the deal

1. Do both SDE figures reconcile to accounts, taxes and bank receipts?
2. How much of the 2026 estimate is earned versus forecast?
3. Which projects explain the difference from 2025?
4. What are actual margins and unpaid balances by completed job?
5. Which 2027 contracts transfer, and can clients cancel?
6. Who performs the seller's estimating, supervision and approvals?
7. Which crew members and customer relationships will stay?
8. What receivables, holdbacks, deposits and job obligations transfer?
9. Are inventory, equipment, lease, insurance and safety records acceptable?
10. Will the seller accept costed handover milestones and negotiated downside protection?

First 100 days: make the backlog believable

Days 1–30: join the seller's site visits, retain supervisors and check completed-job margins. Match quotes to approved changes, labour, materials and collections. Identify which profits are repeatable.

Days 31–100: pilot one shared job pack with approved scope, photos, daily hours and variation sign-off. Software can flag missing documents and overdue invoices; AI can draft summaries from approved notes. A qualified person still decides quantities, condition, safe work, price and customer commitments.

Assume a $5,000 setup allowance and $300 monthly software budget for the pilot, plus internal review time. Obtain quotes; fund these from the reserve only if it also covers equipment needs. Measure missing change orders, margin variance, invoice delay and rework. No speculative savings enter the acquisition model.

Industry Snapshot

Demand is broader than this backlog. Job Bank's Manitoba sector profile estimates construction contributed $4.2B to provincial GDP in 2024. This is not masonry revenue. Provincial building-permit value was up 18.3% year-to-date through July 2026. A September 2026 government announcement committed up to $73M toward up to 821 homes. These are activity signals, not awarded masonry work. Job Bank sector profile; Manitoba dashboard; housing announcement.

Labour and compliance need project-specific costing. Manitoba's ICI schedule sets a $43.30 hourly bricklayer rate for May 2026–April 2027; applicability and exclusions must be checked, not assumed for every repair. The sector profile also identifies recruitment and retirement pressures. WCB advises construction firms to check subcontractor clearances. None of this proves these eight employees can replace the seller. ICI schedule; WCB clearances.

Market limits. No suitably matched Winnipeg masonry market size, concentration/M&A series, margin or completed-sale multiple was established. Ontario or U.S. benchmarks are not substituted. AI may improve paperwork, but cannot make physical masonry work disappear. The 2.96× asking ratio prices an unverified estimate; transferable job economics decide whether it is attractive.

The AndChill verdict

Worth investigating for an experienced contractor with on-site leadership. Not an absentee bet on recovery. Request the earnings bridge and costed, transferable backlog before discussing growth. Moving to Winnipeg? Confirm crew continuity and local management first. “Relocatable” does not mean the fieldwork runs remotely.